The Gambler’s Guide to Dragon Warrior
by ETG
Disclaimer:
This guide is provided for the Dragon Warrior community to enhance the game playing experience of DW fans everywhere. The author of this guide does not guarantee better results in your gambling efforts.  In other words, this guide will probably just help you figure out why you are losing so much.
Chapter 2: Dragon Warrior III
Monster Ring Locations:
In the world of Dragon Warrior III, there are several Monster Rings throughout the land for your gambling pleasure.  Here is a list of all of the Monster Ring locations.
Romaly Isis Samanao Cantlin
Finding out the Odds:
When your party enters the Monster Ring arena, there are two counters.  The man behind the right counter will tell you who he thinks will win the next fight for a small fee of 5 Gold.  Don’t put to much faith in what he tells you, because he is often wrong.
How to Play:
Go and speak to the man behind the left counter in order to place your wager on the next Monster Fight.  The cost is the current level of the front person in your party x10.  The man behind the counter will list each monster fighting next with a number next to it.  This number is the payout ratio if you bet on the winning monster.  For example, your lead party member is on level 13 and the next match has the following monsters and odds:
Magician 3.0

Spiked Hare

5.3
Caterpillar 2.1
The cost of your bet will be 130 Gold (level 13 x 10 = 130).  If you bet on the Magician and he wins, you’ll be paid 390 Gold (130 x 3.0 = 390).  If you bet on the Spiked Hare and it wins, you’ll be paid 690 Gold (130 x 5.3 = 690).  If you bet on the Caterpillar and it wins, then you’ll be paid 170 Gold (130 x 2.1 = 270).  Be careful the smaller the number, the better chance that monster has of winning.  In this case, it is most likely that the Caterpillar will win, thus it has a smaller pay out ratio.  The Spiked Hare has the least chance to win, thus it has the highest pay out ratio.
Probability:
We will use the example above to figure out the probability of each monster to win.  The formula for determining the probability is describe in the following equation:

 
Probability of

1

a Certain Monster            =

–––––––––––––––––––

 x 100%  
Winning (%)

Monster’s Payout Ratio

Magician’s Probability

  = ( 1 / 3.0 ) x 100% = 33.0%
Spiked Hare’s Probability                = ( 1 / 5.3 ) x 100% = 18.9%
Caterpillar’s Probability                = ( 1 / 2.1 ) x 100% = 47.6%
You will notice that all of the monsters probabilities add up to 100% (33.0% + 18.9% + 47.6% = 100% approximately) The error is due to rounding.  Each fight will be the same.  All monsters probabilities, no matter how many are fighting, will add up to 100% approximately.
Prizes:
The only prize for winning is Gold.  You bet with your Gold and you get paid in Gold when you win.  Not very exciting when compare to the other Dragon Warrior games, but if you’re good you can buy better weapons and armor without having to fight monsters yourself.
Conclusion:
I hope this enhances your Dragon Warrior III game playing experience.  If you want to cheat and win more consistently and you are playing the rom on NESticle, save state (F5) when the list of monsters appears.  Bet on any monster, then watch the fight.  When the fight is over, if you lost, restore state (F7) and select the monster who won.  This way you will always win.  If there are any mistakes in this guide, please let me know.  Be sure and stay tuned for Chapter 3 of The Gambler’s Guide to Dragon Warrior, where you can read about the Casinos in Dragon Warrior 4.